Research

Papers under review

Global Games of Coup d’État: Identification and Estimation

Matthew J. Baker, Khaled Eltokhy, and Weichao Guo · 2026

A structural global-games model of coup attempts and success that separates incentives to rebel from regime strength, coordination, and information quality.

arXiv

Demand Estimation with Variable Choice Sets: A Likelihood Correction for Nested Logit

Matthew J. Baker and Lisa M. George · 2026

We derive the exact likelihood for the Berry (1994) share-form nested logit when choice sets vary across markets, identify a Jacobian correction that matters for within-nest substitution, and apply the estimator to Medicare Advantage plan proliferation.

SSRN · DOI · GitHub / exactnl

Forthcoming publications

A Model of Enclosures: Coordination, Conflict, and Efficiency in the Transformation of Land Property Rights

Matthew J. Baker and Jonathan Conning · 2026

Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming.

A model of the transformation of common-property regimes in which private enclosure decisions can be strategic complements or substitutes, with implications for coordination, conflict, and efficiency.

Online appendix and replication materials

Cultural Transmission, Property Rights, and Treatment of the Elderly

Matthew J. Baker and Joyce P. Jacobsen · 2026

Journal of Population Economics, forthcoming.

A model of how property rights, production technologies, and cultural transmission interact to shape the treatment and economic position of the elderly.

Publications and other research

For a complete publication list, software packages, and other research outputs, see my full CV or RePEc profile.